HN, It's a good upper bound, and probably just as much use as the NTSB's simulations.
The thing that is striking about the TWA breakup, which I hadn't appreciated, was that the wing box remained intact after the explosion, and all the initial damage was to a collar forward of the wing root, causing the front to separate. From the reconstructed wreckage put back together on the scaffold, I'd assumed it had all come apart together.
This pattern of damage seems rather similar to Lockerbie, which in hindsight isn't too surprising from an explosion in the lower fuselage.