The problem I personally have with any FRI is justification, both to HM Treasury and the tax payer. The initiatives that have gone before have been rushed in to curb near-term manning issues, thus they have been poorly targeted and produced little tangible evidence that they achieved their end-state. The Treasury are wary and therefore highly unlikely to approve any such retention measures unless they show rigour and a positive cost-benefit. ISTR the US $250k offer had a 10-year return of service, so something equivalent in the UK would be c.£11k p.a. after tax with a 10-year lock in!
Just wait until the commercial sector start recruiting strongly again in line with an improving economy! Many airlines have a large number of new jets, such as 787, on order and the extended retirement age Captains of this World are about to take their pensions and hit the fairway, creating an upward flow and a concomitant recruitment drive. I imagine that experienced ex-Mil pilots and aircraft technicians will once again be a cost-effective choice for airline growth but maybe I'm too optimistic
Wokkamate, I agree that some form of FRI (FRI 4 if you will) is inevitable but it will almost certainly be a knee-jerk reaction to a sudden commercial pull; it will be poorly targeted and nowhere near enough money to change people's minds. The drawdown of Afghanistan and the further desire to save money and cut excess (SDSR15[16]) may create a huge activity void as we still try and get our heads around what FF2020 and the NEM mean. The prospect of dwindling opportunities and more swingeing cuts are already making a lot of people think carefully about alternative futures outside of the Forces.
I hope the situation gets 'gripped' before it becomes irreversible.