My question to the board: the AMSA search area is now but 3% of the total 'southern arc' total search area. I gather that this is due to the the focus on the route scenarios provided by the NTSB. Anyone know how these were derived? Simple 180° header south from the Bay of Bengal x fuel? Computer modelling of various sets of satellite ping arc data? Anyone know?
Very interesting question. Yesterday this was discussed to some length in this thread. Probably computer modelling is the way to go. The shrinking that happened to the search area from yesterday to today is an indication that they are doing constant simulation runs. By doing more runs and feeding in more data and assumptions they can home in a little bit more on the target.
The data would be:
- set of ping arcs
- wind vectors on assumed flight path
- atmospheric parameters(temp,pressure,humidity) and resulting engine performance
Assumptions would be:
- Fuel on board
- TAS which puts restraints on fuel flow
- Altitude which puts restraints on TAS and fuel flow
- assumptions on HDG setting or flightplan in FMC
- assumptions on throttle setting
The model can become quite complex.