I do wonder, however, if the Ukranians haven't given themselves a better guarantee of never having a pro-Russian president again? A price to be paid for slicing off some of the electorate?
No war, Putins's true colours demonstrated to the world. The reasons to get over the dependence on gas and oil made completely obvious to the EU electorate and some Europeans thinking twice about defence cuts. It should be a bit easier to convince people to pay for wind farms and nuclear plants and to accept fracking now
With luck there will be a new, mostly intact, EU member or at least EEA member and the chance of a lot of economic development for the people living in it. The poor fellows left inside their Russian ghetto will be thinking about changing their citizenship and moving out to wave their flags somewhere else.
Perhaps NATO will be able to start using Antonovs? I am sure that calculations along these lines have been done already hence the lack of response.