merlin driver:
Yes, excellent points concerning SAR, thank you, I am aware. However the objective at that point in my little exercise was to determine which was the greater of two possibilities; aircraft/aircraft system failure or hijack. If aircraft/aircraft system failure I assigned a high probability that the crash would be within a reasonable distance of last known position and 10 days of high coverage SAR in this space under this scenario should turn up some wreckage, it did not. Thus, all I am saying is that this fact makes the probability of a hijack greater than that of aircraft failure