Mountain bear
Your point is a valid one, but perhaps a little dogmatic. If it's correct that last ping was picked up by only one sat as opposed to two sats at 4 to 5 hrs giving intersection arcs, then fire gets less likely.
Those reasons, assuming the pings are reliable evidence, make a hijacking to a distant Nthn, or Sthn area the best scenario and that's just what the authorities seem to be opting for.