I must say, I think you have it all figured out
Well it's just try thinking from the other end.
The flight path over the peninsula can be just the aftermath of the chaos. If the flightpath was carfully figured out to miss the radar, that attemp was a complete failure. The radar plot is there and is part of this investigation.
PS.: Not all tragedies on this planet are related to terrorism, probably more than 99% are not !