This thread has certainly brought out the "analysts" whose textbooks are films like "To Catch a Thief," "James Bond," "Mission Impossible" or the "Oceans #" movies. I would prefer to take instruction from analysts whose "texts" were actual science classes, SAR or aviation experience.
That said, as someone who is a professional in decision analysis, the smart money should be on a chain of events that are
consistent with one another. Not a parley bet of several one million-to-one chances.
What appears to be an important chain of consistency in terms of all of the information that we have is that every significant occurrence seems to have the effect, intended or not, of making it harder to track the location of this plane.
- Comms termination as are crossing FIRs
- ACARS termination
- Travel backtrack between Malaysian and Thai airspace at FL295
- Feint to the north, then heading to the south
I have seen no
simple explanation of why all of these strange events should occur other than because some sentient individual is willing them. All of them suggest that this individual doesn't want this plane to be found, ever. If this person wanted to head to the Stans, why didn't they commandeer one of the many flights from KL that head towards Europe? Far few tracks would need to be covered. The idea that this plane secretly landed is beyond far-fetched. Further, I see hundreds of millions of dollars being spent by dozens of governments looking at sea, not at land.
While I have no crystal ball, it seems certain that this individual had to have extensive knowledge of T7 systems, as well as extensive knowledge of flight surveillance systems in SE Asia. This individual would also have to be well-placed to effectuate this plan on the plane. One of the flight deck crew seems to be the most likely possibility. Shooting the companion pilot or getting him off the flight deck and then turning off the A/C packs and opening the outflow would incapacitate everyone behind the flight deck door in short order -- especially if the altitude was in the >FL350 range.
The aforementioned analysis is based on consistent logic. I am not a psychologist and cannot venture a guess as to why this pilot may have done this. Hatred at MAS, hatred at the Malaysian government, upset at home situation -- or perhaps wanted to end his career as a lost icon that lives forever in aviation history -- such as Amelia Earhart or D. B. Cooper.
All of this suggests that this plane headed southwest into the furthest and deepest location of the Indian Ocean -- say halfway between Australia and Diego Garcia. Given the remoteness of this area, its bad weather for surface navigation, and its great depth, this is where the plane was crashed.
While I hold out hope that we may find some floating evidence of the crash, I am betting that in my remaining lifetime the actual plane will not be found, and no final proof will be established as to exactly what happened, or why.