The disapearance of MH370 was either caused by cascading technical failures followed by a crash or it was a deliberate act, like it is the comunicated official version at the moment. And it is fair to say that we meanwhile see it as the most probable event as well.
A deliberate act to prevent MH370 from reaching its planned destination can only be executed from within the aircraft, from one or more passengers, from one or more crew members, or a combination of both, one single passenger being the most unlikely one in my humble opinion. All passengers and all of the crew are suspects at the moment.
A deliberate act could be a single persons deed like suicide or some kind of personal vandetta, or it could be an outside job with the acting people on board being the mercenaries. A suicide or personal vandetta could be straight forward, get the aircraft and do something weird with it, thereby killing yourself and doing whatever damage you intend to do. I'm no shrink, but i can't see a person with a suicide will go to such detailed planning and execution and missing the final big bang glory, to let everybody know what he did.
That leaves the outside job, from a group with resources, money and motive.
Could that group be some political motivated group from inside or outside malaysia to make some statement and do some damage (terror), or a criminal group with the intent to make money from the load and aircraft (crime)?
If it is some terror scheme, then their aim may be reached by making aircraft and load disappear without trace ( crash it in deep water),or by crashing it in 911 style which did not happen. Other option would be landing it somewhere for the purpose of using its load or / and the aircraft for a later purpose (terror or crime). Landing it in the water would be not an planned option for that last intention, too many unknown risks for the aircraft and the load would be involved. Imagine unloading some tons of gold in the middle of the ocean from a sinking aircraft by hand from the hold. If the load was of interest, the number of suspects is limited to the circle in the know of the shipment, in the first line being the sender and the recepient, as only those both would have the detailed insight about the kind of shipment, the size, the weight, the look alike, the value of the shipment and the planned timing.
Landing the aircraft somewhere on land (normal or crashlanding) needs lots of preparation and logistcs to make sure the place is suitable, the place is deserted at landing time and the infrastructure for the getaway is safe and managable. Furthermore the place must be remote enough that actvities raise no suspicion and remain unobserved from legal forces like military, police and third country survailance systems like satelites. Furthermore, to not get caught later with such a crime all evidence has to disappear somehow pretty soon after landing and stay hidden for quite some time, the best forever.
Such a plot could only be pulled off with the help from powerfull organisations or with the tolerance and assistance of a whole state. Such help would bare great risk in case of failure, therefore the prize to be gained must be worth it in the long term or they don't have to loose anything.
What am i getting at?
1. The disappearance of MH370 was most probably a deliberate act.
2. MH370 was crashed on purpose if it was a personal act.
3. MH370 would have been crashed 911 style or similar, if some terror group wanted to make a statement
4. MH370 could have been hijacked with the intention to land it somewhere, for its load or for criminal or unknown political reasons.
5. Planning for such a landing needs wealthy, influential and powerfull asistance, only states or state organizations can provide.
Now look for somebody along the suspected flightpath with the power, the ability, the will and the reclessness for such a plan.
Last edited by RetiredF4; 16th Mar 2014 at 21:20.