Hmmm...
well after a lot more goggling (goggle hates me) I think I may not be sufficiently conservative
for those of you interested see:
https://www.easa.europa.eu/rulemakin...95%20Final.pdf
where is suggests
Male 94 Kg including carryon
Female 75 Kg including carryon
Average distribution 88 Kg
Baggage 17 Kg
and after a huge amount of goggling seem bags per LDC is in range 45-50.
and 1.8bags per pax
So it looks like I am going to use
Pax (incl carryon) 94 Kg
Bags 17 Kg
LDC = 44 bags
Bags per pax 1.8
hey ho