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Old 14th Mar 2014, 12:43
  #3200 (permalink)  
glenbrook
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
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Originally Posted by Andu
I think it would be fair to say that quite a few pilots will, over the next few months, be very, very careful to maintain proper comms with ATC at all time.
I think you'll find that they are supposed to be doing that anyway.

There is so much bizarre theories bandied about, we should remind ourselves of what we really know

1) A/c vanishing in mid flight is incredibly rare.
2) Hijack or terrorist action is much rarer (20-50x less likely) than pilot error or technical fault
3) We have no solid information beyond the LKP in the Gulf of Thailand, only rumors.

Then list what we don't know:

SAR is searching both sides of Malay peninsula, South China Sea and Andaman Sea, because they do not know where to look.
We don't know the transponder was switched off, just that it never showed up in Vietnam airspace.
We don't know that the a/c produced no RT or mayday, just that none was heard or recorded.
We don't know if the plane turned back or not
We don't know if the engines were running for hours afterwards
We have no evidence of a hijacking, ransom or terrorist action.
We have no evidence of a rogue or suicidal pilot, which are also incredibly rare and unlikely.
Lack of debris around LKP does not mean that it did not crash there.

There have been so many false leads now, we can't really believe anything beyond what was known in the hours after the disappearance. I don't expect an imminent breakthrough. Rumors and theories are flying around the internet, but what it seems to me is that the authorities and SAR resources really don't know much more than we do. They seem to be chasing rumors too. The internet has given "legs" to some of these rumors. This does not turn rumor into evidence.

It is deeply unsatisfactory, but there is no other conclusion. We as crew and passengers just have to live with no understanding of this unsettling incident until something turns up. Don't be surprised if this takes a few more weeks.
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