Try this paper by Dr Matthew Greaves, Snr Lecturer in Accident Investigation at
Cranfield Safety and Accident Investigation Centre
Trajectory Analysis
Ballistic trajectory analysis has been key to many large investigations and much of the science is well understood. However, there has been no package that has incorporated variable gravity, variable density and variable wind profiles into a set of differential equations and then solved them in a robust way. This paper describes the derivation and solution of such a model and presents results gained from it. The numerical solution was validated against a simplified analytical case. Results are given for two simulated breakup cases which provide investigators with information regarding the effect on ground location for variations in four significant parameters.
Conclusions
The results indicate that for simulated large aircraft breakups, low ballistic coefficient items are most heavily affected by breakup altitude, wind magnitude and wind angle whereas large ballistic coefficient items are most heavily affected by breakup velocity, although to a much lesser extent (around 15% of the distance of low ballistic coefficient). For small aircraft breakups, wind angle and breakup altitude have the largest effect on low ballistic coefficient items, with velocity and altitude affecting hig