nitpicker330 is one of the few speaking any sense here.
He is correct when he says the route was most probably via M771 which is basically over water the whole way until Hong Kong. Possible it could have been via DAN A1. Haven't seen the FPL.
As he and others have said, basing assumptions of crash location on publically available, incomplete surveillance data is just non-sensicle.
That said nitpicker, the data I saw seemed to stop abruptly right at TOC. Virtually the same update infact.
Is there any action you carry out regularly virtually right at TOC? eg switch tfr pumps on/off etc?? Just wondering.
Any thing else that could trigger a catastrophic failure just at TOC? Pwr reduction/engine disintegration?