Sadly, there's no rocket science involved here. Ryanair have always used the (non) base transfer system to their advantage. They use emotional blackmail against those pilots who want/need to be in a specific base for personal/family reasons, and will use it as a means to lower T&C's, for example, a new command upgrade, already on 90% salary, so you want to return to xxx base? no problem, that'll be another year on 90% salary, cheers!
If you want STN or DUB, my advice is to apply for RAK or FEZ, then buy an apartment there, and I guarantee, you'll get your base transfer the very next day! Or you can hope that Ryanair falls out with the local authority/airport, throw their toys out the pram, and close the base, giving you first dibs on other bases!
I hope you all get what you want. I know how
it is, when you're stuck hundreds of miles away from home, without a clue of when you'll get back.