Yes the Guv does get a lot of stick for being a doom monger, however I don't believe the situation is quite that bad - but it's pretty bad. My view is that there will be a fairly mild recession that we will start to pull out of in 12-18 months, and the pilot market will start to pick up again in about 18-24 months (being optimistic!).
The main reason for the 91 recession was not the Gulf War but the cost of the decadence of the 1980s (and Tory mismanagement of the economy......easy.....bit of politics). We are in a much stronger long term position economically now. Sit tight, it might take a while but it will turn around.