Sunfish - I was told by a senior (ex) QF executive on the weekend that the Bilateral System/Agreements means that EK won't get AUS-USA and many other routes.
Before an airline can operate international services to another country, the government must first negotiate a treaty level agreement with the destination country’s government. These treaties are known as bilateral air services agreements.
The Australian Government has negotiated over 68 bilateral air services agreements and associated arrangements. These agreements allow our airlines to offer the range of services that they do today.
Bilateral air services agreements/arrangements contain provisions on;
Traffic rights—the routes airlines can fly, including cities that can be served within, between and beyond the bilateral partners.
Capacity—the number of flights that can be operated or passengers that can be carried between the bilateral partners.
Designation, Ownership and Control—the number of airlines the bilateral partners can nominate to operate services and the ownership criteria airlines must meet to be designated under the bilateral agreement. This clause sometimes includes foreign ownership restrictions.