PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - EK - Time to command, for hopeful new joiners and us already in the crapper
Old 11th Feb 2014, 09:53
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Visual Procedures
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Dubai
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Dusted off my crystal ball and it came up with this:

As far as the 330 goes, its anyone's guess. Depends on the 350 of which talk is limited to whispers at the moment.

As far as the 380 goes, there's 40 odd now, total slated at 115, with 1 coming every month unless airbus slows down. So commands are happening, with time to command on the way down in the short term (for those with the hours).. All of course completely dependent on the 30+ aircraft with of crews on the 330.

As far as the 777 goes.. As per the latest "Open Skies" magazine, 134 777's flying, 64ish 'ER's to come over the next 5 years plus the X's which have been nominated as replacement aircraft.

1100ish captains now, makes sense there'd be 1650 needed once all the ER's are here.

Allow for some attrition and if they don't order any more 777's, then the last guy getting a command on the 777 due to expansion in 2019 has the number 411xxx. And that guy will have been here 8 years.

Now factor in the 9 200's and 14 300's slated for retirement over the next couple of years and command-wise things start really looking grim if your number is 412xxx + and your on the 777..
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