PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Aviation sector on brink of collapse, Gary's not happy either
Old 11th Feb 2014, 05:17
  #24 (permalink)  
dhavillandpilot
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Australia
Age: 72
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Why is it everybody is so inward and myopic about aviation in this country.

The current ailments with third level airline operations can be sheeted home to basic economics 1.01

Firstly very short haul airline routes are only successful when there are two criteria.

1. There is sufficient dynamic mass (population or freight demand) to warrant the size of the aircraft being operated.

2. There is an impediment to other forms of transport, ie rail or road

An example of this is Bathurst. In the 1950s Butlers ran a variety successful service. This was due to critical mass being met and the road journey was long due to the nature of the roads and cars in those days. Look at it now mass remains the same (DC3 vs SAAB 340 similar loading) BUT the roads have improved and the motor vehicles are more efficient.

Now take a regional long haul, Wagga or Broken Hill, both have critical mass and both are sufficiently distant from Sydney to be an acceptable alternative to driving.

For all the beating about Brindabella, they serviced routes that were just not viable either in demand for the size of the aircraft or alternate transport cost models.

Country residents of NSW especially had better get use to reduced air services. The only way they will ever have economic services that are efficient and warrant an operator getting a fair return is either

1. Hub and Spoking from such centres as Dubbo, Coffs Harbour, Tamworth etc.

2. Accept regional services from their town to Bankstown where the huge costs levied by Mascot airport are reduced off the air fares.

But neither of these options would be accepted so the inevitable will occur, like Victoria where regional air services have all but disappeared.

And before the pundits who haunt these hallows start telling me I haven't a clue, my face was both a Butler and Air NSW captain and I have lived with regional airlines all my life.

PS.

The only absolutely safe regional route is Sydney Lord Howe. And why because it is a monopoly both in operators/fares and because for all practical purposes the only means of transport
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