It can help if you split the industry down into two parts then ask the same question. The first been the "career jobs" the second the "contract sector".
There are lots of guys out in the contract sector trying to get into the career job sector
There are lots of rated pilots out there with experience on type, and many not in the jobs they would like to build a career at.
You also have lots of guys with experience but not on the type that helps bag the career job.
I don't really follow your line of thought....it's a bit confusing.
"Contract jobs" Are you referring to medium to long term contracts or short term contracts such as single trip jobs or for a few months at a time?
I am guessing by "career jobs" you mean airlines that bring you on as an employee for as long as you can stay? Most companies that hire contract pilots do so through third parties but also have full time employees as well. They use contract employees to fill temporary demand.
Also, in order to get a "contract job" you almost always must be current and rated which means you came from a "career job" that either didn't work out...usually due to a furlough, shut down, or downgrade, or because you want more pay and opportunity for better equipment. Some people are able to take a leave of absence.
There is really no such thing as a long term stable job as a pilot anymore except for a few lucky ones. There is no way to predict what is the next global airline to close it's doors and the world is full of pilots who landed the perfect job when they were young only to be out of work with no pension ten years or worse...twenty years later. It's better to think of your profession as the career rather than the seeing the company you work for as the career. Having the flexibility to demand higher salaries by forcing companies to compete for experienced pilots is good for pilots. This is why airlines like to keep pilots locked into seniority lists....to control them and prevent them from forcing airlines to compete for their services.
The point is it doesn't really matter because all these factors drive up global demand and that's good for all pilots.