PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Pilot demand and supply - who has the figures?
Old 3rd Feb 2014, 04:33
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lifeafteraviation
 
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I think the main question of the OP wasn't so much about how to find a job as to how can the demand for pilots worldwide be so high yet it's such a difficult career to break into and what is the breaking point.

Currently worldwide the demand for certain current and rated pilots exceeds the supply so there are huge salaries and pretty much a guarantee of a job if you have at least 500 PC hours in type. Right now if you have PC time in Airbus A320-A330, CRJ, ERJ, or any current Boeing series it's really easy to find a high paying job somewhere in the world. With the A320 it's become ridiculous with airlines simply leaching off each other for current TR pilots.

To a lesser extent there is demand for experienced first officers.

Most of these airlines are operating in countries that don't have internal resources to meet demand so they hire foreign pilots at very high salaries. Due to limitations within their own regulating agencies they are limited to hiring only current and TR pilots. They are able to transition or upgrade pilots once they've got some experience but they're pretty inefficient at doing this.

Due to economic slowdowns in Europe and the Americas there has been a surplus of such pilots in those parts that are willing and able to meet the demand in Asia and the Middle East but that surplus is drying up quickly as many pilots return to their home countries as business picks up. In the US, additional factors are driving this demand.

At the same time the economic growth in China is slowing slightly but the demand for pilots is still very strong and the horrendous management of these airlines means they continue to shoot themselves in the foot and artificially drive up demand and raise salaries. You would think the natural reaction to a slowing economy would be to improve efficiency but it doesn't appear to be happening yet.

So the real question is....at what point do they realize they can't meet the demand with this game of musical chairs competing to fill seats with a diminishing supply of current and TR pilots? The only options would be to take experienced pilots such as yourself and qualify them in type such as many western airlines do.

In Hong Kong and Japan they're already doing this to some extend and will hire experienced and inexperienced pilots and place them within the company depending on qualifications. In the US it's unlikely to happen this way due to the limitations of the traditional seniority list structure and you must always start at the entry level position regardless or your previous experience. Most pilots prefer to work for one quarter to one third of what they can earn overseas for the substantial benefits of living in their home country. Even domestically, however, the airlines will leach pilots off one another as pilots move to fill jobs and airlines that offer better long term advancement and better working conditions despite very low starting pay. This will drive up availability of entry level first officer positions in the US, the Americas and probably in Europe soon too.

In China and some other Asian countries they simply don't have the training infrastructure or knowledge of how to do this. It's not a difficult problem to solve but they are very slow to move.

My prediction with China is they will continue to raise salaries in an attempt to retain and attract pilots but will fail nevertheless. Short of fixing their own internal training issues they may resort to hiring experienced non rated pilots and training them in house or contracting such training overseas, the latter being the most viable solution for them.

As far as a time scale I think we are just beginning to see the effects of this trend and it will become more apparent over the next few years so just hang in there.
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