Looking at influences that dictate the success or otherwise of CWL means it's inevitable that competing airports will feature, so it's really no surprise that BRS (especially), BHX and the main London airports will enter any discussion.
In 2012 the CAA passenger survey looked, inter alia, at CWL, BRS, BHX and the London airports.
In terms of origin/destination of terminal passengers LHR saw 3.008 million from the South West (larger than any other area except the South East and East), 1.206 million from the West Midlands and 824,000 from Wales. The corresponding figures for LGW were 1.521 million, 466,000 and 400,000.
CWL saw 30,000 from the South West, 4,000 from the West Midlands and 2,000 from the South East.
BRS saw 1.098 million from Wales (more than used CWL in entirety in 2012), 134,000 from the West Midlands and 132,000 from the South East.
BHX saw 456,000 from the South West, 358,000 from the South East and 192,000 from Wales.
So whichever way they are looked at the figures show CWL haemorrhaging passengers to other airports at a vastly greater rate than they are flowing to it from those other airports' catchments, with BRS a particularly large recipient.
This is no surprise because the general tenor of these figures has been in place for at least a decade, especially CWL vis a vis BRS. The CWL master plan of nearly a decade ago recognised the huge disparity but since then matters have if anything worsened.
Turning to CityJet, it's reported today that the airline's CEO said, “Today in CityJet we are over the 65% load factor. If these routes [Cardiff] are consistent with the rest of our operation we are confident it will be sustainable.”
She said it was too early to say if additional routes would be added but added, “If it makes sense with the right businesses cases, yields and number of passengers, then yes we would do it."
There are reports in another aviation forum that some early flights on the Glasgow service had fewer than 20 passengers but the lateness of booking availability must be taken into account, and the fact that Flybe on its GLA and EDI routes averaged easily in excess of the 32/33 passengers required to reach a 65% load factor for CityJet means there is no real reason to believe that the airline won't achieve this particular target.