If you're going to include luck in the equation, then you need to factor in devine intervention as well.
Call it what you like, fate, serendipity, who cares, but history shows us that very often the reason why the last few holes in the cheese did or didn't line up on a particular day is purely down to chance.
If AF4590 hadn't rolled over that 17" titanium strip on the CDG runway ...
If there hadn't been construction vehicles on that closed runway ...
etc
etc
Granted, you can't and shouldn't count on luck being on your side, but there are plenty of aviators still alive today because it was when they needed it even though they hadn't factored it into their pre-flight planning.
