Inaccurate weather forecasting (TAFs)
We managed to do a spot of night flying tonight.
With all the modern computing power how can the Met Office get it so wrong?
4 amended tafs within the space of 5 hours:-
FT 23/01/2014 20:17->
TAF AMD EGNX 232017Z 2320/2418 21004KT 9999 FEW015
TEMPO 2320/2322 6000 SHRA
TEMPO 2404/2407 8000 -RA
BECMG 2407/2410 15010KT 8000 -RA BKN010
TEMPO 2408/2418 4000 RADZ BKN008
PROB30 2410/2418 BKN004=
FT 23/01/2014 17:44->
TAF AMD EGNX 231744Z 2318/2418 28011KT 9999 FEW015
TEMPO 2318/2321 28020G35KT 6000 SHRA
BECMG 2401/2404 21004KT
TEMPO 2404/2407 8000 -RA
BECMG 2407/2410 15010KT 8000 -RA BKN010
TEMPO 2408/2418 4000 RADZ BKN008
PROB30 2410/2418 BKN004=
FT 23/01/2014 17:00->
TAF EGNX 231700Z 2318/2418 28011KT 9999 FEW015
BECMG 2401/2404 21004KT
TEMPO 2404/2407 8000 -RA
BECMG 2407/2410 15010KT 8000 -RA BKN010
TEMPO 2408/2418 4000 RADZ BKN008
PROB30 2410/2418 BKN004=
FT 23/01/2014 16:15->
TAF AMD EGNX 231615Z 2316/2412 29013KT 9999 FEW015
PROB40 TEMPO 2316/2318 29020G30KT 4000 SHRAGS BKN010
BECMG 2322/2401 21004KT
TEMPO 2404/2409 6000 RA BKN008
BECMG 2408/2411 15010KT
BECMG 2409/2412 6000 RA BKN008
PROB30 2409/2412 4000 DZ BKN004=
FT 23/01/2014 15:09->
TAF AMD EGNX 231509Z 2315/2412 29013KT 9999 FEW015
PROB40 TEMPO 2315/2316 29017G27KT 4000 SHRAGS BKN010
BECMG 2322/2401 21004KT
TEMPO 2404/2409 6000 RA BKN008
BECMG 2408/2411 15010KT
BECMG 2409/2412 6000 RA BKN008
PROB30 2409/2412 4000 DZ BKN004=
No doubt they will say it's all within their "tolerances". Maybe I am wrong but 9 hour tafs seemed to be a lot better.