I don't think it was Bolty because the 11dme arc is over the southern shore of the city whereas the aircraft started turning final over the Bayside and straightened out for a YMEN 35 by the time it was over Brighton.
If it had been from Waren, then it should have tracked 319 to Michm first before turning left to track 264 to Bolty.
It definitely wasn't the infamous Sheed, as that would have at least required tracking over Monty first and tracking 257 towards Sheed. I dare say a drop from Sheed at 2500 and sharp right would have ended in soiled pants.
I agree that the PF probably accepted a visual clearance and was too proud to refuse it - classic mistake.