PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Police helicopter crashes onto Glasgow pub
Old 13th Jan 2014, 22:57
  #1713 (permalink)  
AnFI
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Location: N/A
Posts: 845
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes on 0 Posts
impressive quoting skills SS !

Of course you might not have had to correct your entry if it were not for Murphy's Law(!), from the wiki entry for which is an originating quote:
"Sufficient stress can hardly be laid on the advantages of simplicity. The human factor cannot be safely neglected in planning machinery."

and

" Mathematician Augustus De Morgan wrote on June 23, 1866: "The first experiment already illustrates a truth of the theory, well confirmed by practice, what-ever can happen will happen if we make trials enough." "

or

"If it can go wrong it will (eventually)"


Human error is natuaral and normal (but hopefully rare for critical operations). If there is a probability of human error per operation F, and a large number of opportunities to make an error per time N , then there will by an error rate per time of FxN. If N is large (complex systems) then time between error will be smaller.... if it can happen it will happen eventually.


With greater complexity there is likely to be a greater human error rate.
The advantage of simplicity is clearly not correctly recognised here



JE: That's like saying: helicopter crashes into tree - but not this tree, it's that tree that was dangerous.
Point is if you can screw up use of a fuel system it shouldn't be surprising that it will (eventually) be screwed up. In this case (EC135) given the general misunderstanding exhibited here it would be amazing if it didn't happen and it most likely has happened before LIKE in the BO105 case and many other cases in many other aircraft.

Is there some special exemption for the EC135 from Murphy's Law then? Doh!
AnFI is offline