The Nip
All 3 units have large estates which cost a fortune to run. Halton for example will be further emptied out with the move of SMTW to Worthy Down. The Old Workshops will be almost empty.
There are already at least 10 barrack blocks which are closed up and they are the ones by Maitland. Up at RTS it is very quiet after a few years ago when almost 4000 went through in one year.
As far as I'm aware, the SMTW move has been slipped right as there wasn't the money in the right years in the infra plan - earliest move is 5 years away. Anyway, SMTW is not the be-all/end-all for Old Workshops. There's Specialist Trg Sqn that does all 3 service's HSE/COSH/Environmental trg, JIAG (the new DMOC), the RAF Flight Safety Regional Occurence Investigation Team (that covers the whole of the South), a massive clothing section, the Station Swimming Pool, the Paint Shop and Station Workshops that does stuff for Halton/High Wycombe/Northolt under the Serco Multi-Activity Contract all within Old Workshops.
As for the Barrack Blocks on Maitland, some are used for Airman's Command Squadron to house the 100s of JNCOs/SNCOs that do JMLC and IMLC. Some are used for the Air Cadets, the Regt Flight uses another for CCS and other trg. Normally, there are only 5-6 empty and they are kept on care and maintenance for things like Op OLYMPICS (Halton took ~4,000 HMForces for trg for the Olympics and then housed ~600 for the games) and the Queen's Diamond Jubilee (drilling and housing the ~500 needed for the Windsor Drum Head Ceremony) - it gives the ability to take ~500 all ranks with ease for Resilience tasks in the South. It has taken over that role from the now defunct RAF Northolt. Many contingency plans use Halton due to its location and ability to accomodate at short notice.
As for the Recruit site, there are now ~2,000 up there over a year compared to your quoted maximum of 4,000. I cannot see how you would easily move Recruit Trg Sqn to anywhere else without a massive build program - I would estimate such a new build to cost ~£500M as you would Barrack Blocks, Classrooms, Trg Areas, Sports Facilities and a Parade Square; plus, I know of knowhere that has surplus of SFA and SLA for all the instructors and staff, so that would need at least 2x SLAM blocks and 3 dozen quarters!
Now if that is cheaper than running on Halton then I'll eat my hat!
Of course, some chiseller staff officer will have hatched a plan to get themselves an MBE/OBE without looking at the true cost of such a move. Have we got half a billion to spare? Nope, but it won't stop us saying that we need more redundancies next SDSR with an urgent infra program requirement...
LJ