It's a simple management problem when it comes to downsizing options:
1. Do nothing and wait for natural wastage. Not fast enough without other measures outlined. Also there is no control in protecting key capabilities.
2. Recruitment freeze. Achieves numbers quickly but if done for an extended period - say 2-5 years - then there is no-one to promote to JNCO upwards in 5 years. The recruit trg pipeline is decimated and then you have a problem looking for the non-existent JNCOs/SNCOs that you need to man it with your best people. At some point all your experienced people retire in a big blob and then you have to promote in-experienced to back-fill (great for the individual but bad for the organisation).
3. Recruitment trickle feed and then ramp up prior to achieving target. This is more controllable and leaves the employer the most options. This is what the RAF has done. Also when matched with voluntary redundancy, a small amount of targetted redundancy and a trickle of recruitment it appears as a controlled measure and doesn't panic the workforce!
4. Mass redundancy to the required number. This would be devastating to the workforce morale and also would likely overshoot. The rough rule of thumb is 'if you plan to lose 10% of your workforce by compulsary redundancy then expect to lose a further 15% in short order afterwards'. Not a good option, but the easiest to instigate. Thankfully the RAF did not use it.
LJ
