T O F O,
Thank you for your (as ever) reasoned reply.
The point I was trying to make, as you are probably already aware from other threads, or at least seek clarification on, is that DSR/SDSR 2015 actually happening at all is not a given fact!
DSR 2015, as far as I am aware, is an intention/aspiration/invention of the current coalition government only. To the best of my knowledge Labour has made no commitments yet on Defence.
The first major event before 2015 is the Scottish Independence referendum. A "yes" vote there would drive a coach and horses through current UK Defence policy, as a massive amount of time energy and money would immediately start to be spent unraveling UK Defence assets, bases suppliers, etc, almost none of which has probably been pre-planned (so much for military contingency planning). This would inevitably have a massive knock on effect on any DSR, the two almost inevitably couldn't happen at once, and the initial immediate impact on Defence of Scottish separation would go on well into 2016.
Then there is a UK genreal election due on 7th May 2015, with the result far from clear at this stage. Would it be the current governments intention to hold the DSR before the election, during a period of Purdah *, on the assumption they think they will be re-elected? I would consider this unlikely.
Then there is the election result itself. Presumably a Labour, or Labour/Lib Dem government would feel under no obligation to hold a DSR. It would either be cancelled, or at least delayed while new ministers got to grips with their departments.......given Labours track record on Defence reviews, 2016+?
So for DSR 2015 to occur, Scots have to vote "no", the Tories, or Tory/Lib Dems have to get back in, and even then it would probably not be until the tail end of 2015.....
As I said to start with, people talk about DSR 2015, decisions flowing from it, assets being lost/gained, etc, as though it is as inevitable as the sun coming up tomorrow.
Personally I see it as nothing more than the current plan, and no plan survives first contact with the enemy.... Still, you have to plan on something.
As ever, I await to be corrected by the more knowledgeable out there - just try to be nice when you do it!
*
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Purdah_...lection_period)