The S curve can only work in a market with multiple carriers operating out of multiple hubs. Clearly if 65% is the magic number, in a duopoly the carrier getting only 35% is not going to survive. Funnily enough Virgin has survived on less than 65% due to a lower cost base.
The Australian market will return to approx 50/50, Joyce just has to work out how to make money out of it in the modern environment, and it won't be by returning to the price gouging of the regulated era. It can only come from abandoning his line in the sand, which will result in sustainable yields over time, and lowering his overheads to achieve acceptable margins.
That of course assumes that he actually wants mainline to return to profitability, which I don't think is a given.
Last edited by Vorsicht; 27th Dec 2013 at 01:18.