I must admit, I don't understand why ASKs or market capacity has any relevance when your load factors drop.
I remember when Qantas were making money holding 51% market share versus Ansett's 49%.
If this is all based on a fabled S curve, Alan might want to reconsider the plan because it isn't working. IATA recognised the end of the S curve in 2006, particularly in markets where LCCs exist. Can read about it here -
https://www.iata.org/whatwedo/Docume...sey_SCurve.pdf