"Almost certainly" going to die is a bit strong. Even "probably" is too much. I think "quite likely" covers it. If you are on the ball, have an ELT and a good dingy it is could be "maybe".
Anyway, as has been done to death in another thread, if you remember to maintain your engine and put fuel in it, it is very unlikely to let you down.
I fly SE in all weathers and times of day over water and expect to die in bed.