Probabilities............
Interesting how much time we spend briefing/planning/training for EFATO and the recovery, with much stern discussion of the myriad scenarios. In general there seems to be a consensus of opinion. Yet, when it comes to the sensibility (to me anyhow) of carrying an alternate when the destination is a single runway, opinions suddenly diverge to polar opposites.
I find it intriguing, that over the last 20 years of my airline career - I have had, dare I say it, no engine failures(knock wood).
However, just in the last 3 years(jet ops) I have had at least 6 diversions from single runway airports. In only one case was it weather related - excessive unforecast xw/TURB and too many in the queue behind. The others were all related to ground based problems resulting in the runway becoming unavailable.
In all cases I elected to carry sufficient fuel above the company policy to provide for an alternate - thankfully.
Diversions seem to be more frequently discussed within these forums than engine failures........