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Old 3rd Apr 2003, 12:24
  #16 (permalink)  
gaunty

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I haven't seen nor studied the latest "asset" register so I make these remarks in isolation.

But if any of the so called "assets" that are a component of the long awaited "distribution" are aircraft, then they should be reset to zero as the only realistic measure of whether the "administration" should continue to consume whatever else is left.

I would suggest it is time that this issue is revisited by a totally independent expert or panel thereof, quickly.

I have some experience of the valuation process, not in airliners, but the principle is exactly the same.

It is possible to assign a 'notional' value that assumes that there are buyers in the market place and that the value is “somewhat” above the parting out value or scrapping value

The "somewhat" is what gets consumed fairly quickly in "administration and holding" costs whether they are the subject of a failure of the company or not.

Why do you think the B742 City of Bunbury is sitting out there at LRE in all her quiet majesty? Are AN B76s any younger or lower time?? I doubt it, but I'm sure there si someone out there who can provide chapter and verse.

Her sisters are either in a desert somewhere or surrounding someone’s favourite beverage, having fulfilled their original task.

Alongside the "past their used by dates" aircraft are squadrons and squadrons of new or near new in flyable storage that are the real competition.

Why would anyone buy what's left of the Ansett fleet, which is on the evidence here is both tired and non std, when there are several hundred strolling brokers of no fixed percentage who, can "fix" you up, with something that is not.

EPIRB says;
I did hear a rumour that Australian Air Express put an offer in on one or two 767's but it was knocked back
If this was so, it was because; London to a brick, AAE offered what the aircraft were "actually" worth.
If it was knocked back, I would offer that it was because it did not fit the "price scenario" constructed to keep the creditors hanging around for a bit longer and would crystallise any "Pollyanna" surrounding the "value" of the so called "assets".

Any available cash therefore that is being consumed by the "administration" is not going to be "refunded" by the hoped for "asset" sales and you don't need to be a mental giant to work out who loses.

So called innovative modern = BS, business, concepts and 'modern' accounting principles are increasingly being "defrocked" and trusted and battle tested old lessons being relearned on a daily basis. HIH, Enron, Andersens to name but a few.

Two of the simplest and most robust of the old are;
2 + 2 = 4 and,
The first loss is ALWAYS the best loss.

Don't get me started on the first, but you are waaaaaaay past the second in the disposal of the airline and the aircraft.

Unless you take control back from the Unions and everyone else on the Creditors committee who does not have a direct personal financial interest and review the whole thing from A to B, every day that goes past just transfers more dollars from your pocket to the cost of administration.

Liquidation will IMHO produce a result, not what you were promised, which has been the object of a serial reduction since day 1, but what you will really get now.
Administrations tend to be zero sum games for the creditors.

What you get now however small will then be in your personal control and you will get to have the fun of either losing or spending your money yourself

The other perhaps more real effect will be to crystallise the staff hopes and disappointments and allow them to get on with their lives.

It would be a tragedy for those who are hanging out and have not moved their lives forward in hope or expectation, wind up with, as is most likely, a mouthful of feathers.

As an aside, I have a problem, like most in OZ, watching the obscenely highly paid fund managers lose substantial amounts of my assets and charge me heaps for the privilege. I have taken it all back under my personal control. I can’t do any worse and I get to have the fun of making it or losing it if that is the way it works out.

I think it is time the AN staff took back control of what is left of their assets.

I see reports around here that KordaMentha are building a national insolvency business.

Is it pulling too strong a bow to suggest that the AN staff are shareholders in that process as the core "client"?
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