Easy,
The answer is no one knows. When I joined guys were getting commands in less than 2 years, then Gulf speared in and the requirements were changed. In the past guys have taken longer and shorter periods of time.
At the interview it is stated that 'currently' commands are taking about 3 years but that this period may change depending on the requirements of the company.
Since I joined it has been stated that the airline will expand to 100 aircraft by 2010. So what is happening is that guys are looking at the crews required for 100 aircraft, seeing how many guys we currently have and working out when we would have enough Captains for this requirement.
They then are assuming a certain level of staff turnover which would lead to a 7 year command figure. But guess what a lot of the Captains are young and might stay so it could be longer. Or EK could say that their strategic aim is to have, say, 200 aircraft by 2015 and the time drops again.
I have no idea what is going to happen but the plans for the airline size have more than tripled since I joined and because of the rapidly expanding Gulf population and the success of the airline, a further increase in airline size might not be inappropriate but any number of future events might stifle this growth. It is of note that we have expanded rapidly even during the downturn so if you believe there ever will be an upturn who knows what might happen.
So just like our investments, 'Time to command may go up as well as down and past performance is not a guide to future performance!'
Hope that helps,
Ghost