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Old 13th Dec 2013, 20:19
  #948 (permalink)  
tartare
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: A better place.
Posts: 2,319
Received 24 Likes on 16 Posts
Sunfish - you're confusing direct like on like replacement for jobs with the overall economic multiplier effect of large resources projects throughout the economy.
The infrastructure that will contribute to the LNG boom is already built, or being built - the final investment decisions have been made, it's not pie in the sky.
They are underpinned by signed 30 year contracts by Asian energy companies to take the gas.
That means massive annuity style streams of cash flooding into the Australian economy for the next three decades.
So, to the earlier poster who said these forecasts can be made to suit whatever barrow you're pushing, and are often wrong, not so.
That money will mean jobs and economic stimulus, everywhere in all sorts of sectors.
That's not Ayn Rand at all - it's economics 101 and there's nearly two hundred years of evidence to back up the theories.
In fact, despite the earlier posts talking about rent seeking, it's precisely that flow of cash from mining that has propped up the economy until the Capex investment boom dried up.
One place that will feel a huge effect of the gas boom is Queensland, home to large CSG reserves. And that's without even beginning to look at shale reserves... many geologists believe Australia may be sitting on shale gas reserves that are just as big.
The future is bright and very promising for us and our kids - this really is the lucky country.
So, there won't be any armed insurrections, or people trying to seek resources at the end of a gun!
Provided - and a big if - we don't squander that income on perpetuating fortress Australia, and unsustainable terms and conditions in industries like car manufacturing or, at the risk of making you all grit your teeth, the airline industry.
There will be a Qantas in future.
I wonder if Abbott and co. will blink right at the last moment, bail you out a la Air NZ, and then force a quick, brutal and very radical re-structure and downsizing. A politician can live with Holden dying on his watch, but the cost of seeing the national carrier die on his watch? Far too politically and symbolically expensive to let that happen I reckon.
Think like a politician for a sec - the electorate would slaughter you.
So what to do?
Well gentlemen and ladies, make a big, ballsy decision.
If you don't like what's happening in aviation - then leave.
Change jobs.
Sell your house.
Move states, or even countries.
I did all three in 2011 after having taken a gamble late in life, changed industries and did a two year exec MBA (self funded, and I'm not rich or young).
As a result I have come close to tripling my income and have a job that is very interesting.
So it can be done.
If you're smart enough to get an ATPL, or complete an A,B,C or D check on a widebody then you can do it too.
Good luck.
tartare is offline