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Old 11th Dec 2013, 23:57
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VH-FTS
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: Australia
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I posted the following on the Virgin thread, but it's applicable to this thread too:

Guys, waiting around for Virgin to take you off the hold file may mean you end up missing the boat. Read the VIPA and AFAP newsletters, together with company financial reports, and it's evident any recruitment, let alone growth, has come to a grinding halt.

Now throw in the Qantas saga and what it could do to the pilot market. QF international is very likely to become a dead duck. A number of Qantas pilots will then be made redundant - either international or domestic. There's all sorts of claims that more senior international pilots will end up replacing a number of domestic pilots. That will mean an over supply of pilots. The ex-QF pilots will then grab whatever Tiger, Cobham, Jetstar jobs they can in order to keep paying the mortgage. Some might even head for the turbo prop operators. Sure, some pilots will head overseas, but not all of them. Can you see how this will end up similar to the market from 2001 to around 2005?

So unless you're happy to stick around your current job for the medium to long term waiting for Virgin to call, make the most of other opportunities before it is too late.
Something has to give at Qantas. It is unlikely the whole company will shut down, but the most likely option is some, if not all, of QF international ops is closed down (or moved over to Jetstar). That means a lot of pilots without work, which dramatically alters the pilot market in Australia.

QF domestic will stick around, so it's not like Virgin or Tiger will suddenly explode with growth to pick everyone up. Therefore the domestic airline job market remains stagnant, but now with an over supply of experienced pilots. The jet operators stop recruiting from the turboprops, the turboprops stop hiring from twins, the twins stop hiring from entry level GA. Now new CPLers can't get their first job either - the whole pilot market is altered for a good number of years.

It's the doomsday scenario for anyone trying to get their first or second job. For everyone else - grab a seat before the music stops (or hang on tight to your current one!).
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