Onceapilot, you appear unwilling to understand the point.
If the VC10K had launched with 3 Jags and a hose had failed, one receiver would have needed to return to Lajes - and the VC10K would have returned to collect it the following day. At no stage was 'trusting to luck' ever envisaged; after the first bracket, the trail could have continued with a single hose plan even if a hose had failed later in the mission.
It might have been possible to refuel 2 Jags and adopt a critical area solution for the 3rd, but that wasn't part of the post-NAPS era SOPs....
A deep ocean RV with nothing more than A/A TACAN against a receiver formation would have been less likely to succeed when the tanker had been airborne for some time using uncorrected FMS/INS (outside DME/DME correction range). With GPS augmentation, both tanker and receiver would have been more likely to have been in the right place at the right time. The other option would have been for the 'returning TriStar' to have flown back even further towards Lajes for the final receiver RV.