14 787-8s would be an orphan fleet for QF and they can't afford to get rid of the 30 A330s in the group and replace it with the 787 in the short term as many of the A330s are nqiote new. Nor can they send 30 A330s to J*. So it's case of working out where you can put 14 787s that you bought at a bargain price and get the best rationalisation for the rest of the fleet. Whilst the spin around the 787 for J* is nauseating and contradictory when they spin the benefits of it whislt continuing to operate the 767 domestically, it actually does make sense.
What doesn't make sense is why we haven't yet firmed up 787 slots for QF. There is no doubt it is the future of QF opening up SFO from SYD, MEL and BNE. DFW from SYD, MEL. CDG and other European ports from Adelaide, Perth, Brissie via Dubai, etc, as well as replacing older A330s in about 8-9 years. In fact, I can see 50 being nowhere near enough or an order for 777Xs in the future to supplement the 787 and replace the 744s due to retire after 2020.
It only starts to make sense when you remember that there are still a few hurdles to cross. At a function I was at a while back I asked AJ why Dixon hadn't addressed all the 'structural issues' that AJ was now trying to sort out. His response was that as QF was making money, there was no appetite to do the hard yards. Thus, were QF to announce new aeroplanes, new routes, etc then plainly there are good times ahead and the ability to do those hard things is diminished.
As I've said before, this is part of a wider narrative of QF needing 'fixing'. Whether the end game is to set it up for EK or private equity, I don't know but anything AJ says must be read understanding that its intended for a specific audience and for a specific reason. The fact it doesn't make sense (on the surface) to the rest of us is entirely irrelevant. Once you start to view his comments within the wider framework, only then can you see the 'sense' in them.
So if he ordered 787s now, then they wold need engineering support in a few years time. That gives the ALAEA leverage to prevent being downsized in the short term- something that goes against what AJ wants to achieve with engineering. So instead, he'll retire a bunch of aeroplanes, lose critical mass to do the remainder, send them off shore, and then not have the capability to maintain the new fleet in house. A bunch of pesky engineers gone, more fixed costs for maintenance (short term), easier to budget for, etc.
I sometimes wonder whether he's actually fooled us all and his grand plan, whilst heinous in what it's doing to a dedicated and highly skilled work force, is actually quite brilliant in achieving what he wants to achieve. Whether he actually achieves it remains to be seen and by then it may be all too late for those of us still around. Still, I'm not sure what it is that any of us can do about it.