It may help to consider the ideas in the presentations below:
http://easa.europa.eu/essi/ecast/wp-...aracteriz2.pdf
http://easa.europa.eu/essi/ecast/wp-...erformance.pdf
Caution; the problems of runway overruns include the quality of data (real-time reporting of conditions) and the human factor in understanding the situation and the choice of action.