Ryanair's new bases: Something doesn't add up
This attempt to obliterate Vueling's expansion from Rome and Brussels before it has even started is interesting. Does Ryanair really see Vueling as a serious threat that must be countered? The recent announcements suggest so. If Vueling had not recently been taken over by IAG would we be seeing the same reaction?
The other interesting question (which others asked at the time of the DUB / STN announcements) is where the aircraft are going to come from. The plans are for:
6 aircraft at Rome FCO
4 at Brussels BRU
2 at Catania
2 at Palermo
1 at Lamezia
2(?) new aircraft for the additional 700,000 passengers at Dublin
1 new aircraft for the extra Shannon flights
4 or 5(?) extra aircraft for the additional 1.3 million passengers at Stansted
This means that an additional 22-23 aircraft will be required for next summer.
Ryanair's new deliveries don't start until October 2014 and there are no others on order before them (at least not that have been announced). According to the latest investor presentation, the fleet size at the end of FY14 (March 14) will be 300, down from 303 for summer 2013. The projections are for growth to 308 by March 2015.
So either Ryanair need to get their hands on 20 additional aircraft very quickly, or existing bases are going to start losing aircraft, routes or frequencies. By my reckoning, 7 to 8% of all flights would need to be 'churned' to provide the level of capacity required for the new routes. If this is the case, we can expect widespread cuts to existing services. I wonder which airport contracts are up for renewal over the next few months?