Yep, Shadow will stay, as will Reaper but Sentinel remains in the balance.
In a way the above is a bit of a red herring as one of the problems we have is with OCU output. There are quite a few fleets with rather poor fleet availability outside of aircraft directly committed to ops. This leaves us with gaps on the frontline and aircrew waiting on or struggling to get through an OCU. In addition, some OCUs are struggling to grow or retain their instructor cadre and the frontline is not well placed to give-up its experienced personnel to instructional roles.
As a result we are unable to replace the current loss rate. We need aircrew to stay where they are for a bit whilst the post-SDSR crisis calms down - hence the growing call for an FRI. In truth, we are below critical mass on a number of fleets and we are running out of ideas on how to fix the problem with what we have left.