What fleets are struggling that much?
Are we going to have a glut of post-HERRICK aircrew as Shadow, Sentinel and Reaper either do or don't get absorbed into core, and the TGRF continues to get cut....?
From my understanding, 5F6B may well be onto something. At a Manning brief early this year, a lot was hanging on (a) Sentinel and Shadow being taken into core funding and (b) whether the VC10/TriStar/Herc K combo went out of service on time. Seeing as (a) hasn't happened yet and (b) is proceeding apace, one may surmise that there may be few to no openings in ME for current FJ or RW folks. Given that the RAF is soon to lose two of the four main RW fleets, and one of two FJ fleets is drawing down, those on high may well assume that shuffling around those who are left will suffice. Of course I'm being simplistic, but then so are our Lords and Masters!
FRI? I'm not holding my breath...