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Old 28th Mar 2003, 23:18
  #59 (permalink)  
kbf1
 
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The issues I see emerging from that are:

1. The holding off of coalition forces would allow Saddam to consolidate his forces and bolster his defences around known lines. Any coalition troop movements would give an early warning of where the next line of advance may come from and give Saddam more of an opportunity to counter-attack as well as harass forces near the front line. The division of the mainly Sunni north and Shia'a south would mean that the coalition forces would quickly be drawn into a policing and humanitarian quagmire that would draw away anything up to 50% or more of the forces to contain small pockets of militias loyal to Saddam, while attempting to restructure the connurbations and infrastructure around them so that the people do not become hostile.

Diplomatically the UN will not sanction the effective division of the country as the French and Germans would see it as territorial gains which they would argue is sanctioning the initial use of force by other means. Coalition forces would see this as a loose-loose situation as it does not achieve the objective of the removal of Saddam and a unified, more democratic Iraq which is western facing.

The Russians are already nervous of the $3bn contracts awaiting payment on the lifting of sanctions being declared null and void if a colaition-led administration is in place. They would prefer either the current regime staying in place, or an American led on that they can bargain with. A split country with 2 administrations, 1 western coalition, the other Saddam in a state of siege does not suit their objectives.

(2) Agreed, however this should be done under the banner of the UNHCR and ICRC with military support. Already the US are asking for an extra 4000 troops to support humanitarian operations to free 7th Arm Bgde from looking after refugees and POWs.

The only way we can now secure a desirable outcome is to maintain momentum into the fight and as the MSR becomes extended establish FMAs (as is happening) with a rolling FFMA. A seperate LogOp for humanitarian aid should be opened using the exisiting aid organisations and their infrastructure until such a time as the objectives are won and the transition is made from offensive to peace-keeping operations begins, at which point the UN should be encouraged to take control of the aid programme with jiont US/Arab funding.
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