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Old 19th Nov 2013, 03:20
  #47 (permalink)  
1A_Please
 
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Alan could try to raise capital by convincing the big four Australian banks to invest $500 million each, this additional $2 billion of Australian ownership would then allow for further foreign investment of up to about $1.9 billion. If all that was to happen it would more than double the market capitalisation of Qantas. This injection of funds would allow Qantas to compete with any predatory behaviour, or to expand their operations, or to provide upgrade/superior services
I'm sure the CEOs of the banks would just be delighted to invest $500M of shareholder funds into a company that has seen its value fall by 75% in 7 years.....not!!!

QF are free to go to the market and have a rights issue today with its existing shareholders and this would both boost its capital and enable it to get more foreign investment. The problem is the share price has tanked so much that most existing shareholders wouldn't be interested and even a $500M injection would be highly dilutive given the current market capitalisation is only just over $2.5B. This dilution would just lead to an even lower share price and would require a massively discounted offering.

QF is probably right that only foreign airlines would be interested in investing at the moment and that requires the QSA to be revoked. It is hard to see the share price recovering for ages as many existing shareholders will quickly dump their holding as the price increases meaning there is a huge overhang that will take years to work through.
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