PPRuNe Forums - View Single Post - Airbus 380 loses engine, goes 5000 miles
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Old 16th Nov 2013, 16:18
  #163 (permalink)  
TeachMe
 
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Seoul
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Just SLF and trust the right decision was made in this situation

One thing I note is that in the discussions above that some do not understand conditional statistics. I suggest some posters read up on it.

Next, derived from this, a question: Is a 747 / 380 on two engines after a random initial failure and no diversion followed by a second random failure just as flyable, stable and 'safe' as a 777 on one engine (assuming for both no more engine failures) ? If not, then a drop from 3 to 2 on a 747 / 380 is more 'seious' than a drop from 2 to 1 on a 777.

Yet another question: To what extent is it possible to know fully and completely the cause of an engine failure before a mechanic opens up the engine?

If it is 100% possible in some situations, then in those situations the chance of a second failure is equal to the chance of the initial random failure.

If it is not possible to know 100%, then there must be assumed a greater risk of a second or further failure.

I know stats, but not piloting, so I do not have the full answers to these questions, but they are central to situations such as this.
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