UK to French regions

[davidjohnson6]

I've been thinking over the last few months about routes between the UK and the smaller French regional airports, particularly to French airports with less than 500,000 passengers per year

It occurred to me that with Cityjet's long term ownership in question and Air France wanting out as soon as possible, as well as Flybe undergoing a significant review of their routemap, we might see a rather sudden reduction in connectivity on these routes during 2014. While Ryanair has the seeming ability to magic passengers out of thin air, their fleet is typically busy during summer and with only limited expected growth in number of airframes, they will likely be quite picky, as well as possibly wanting more marketing support than the local airport is willing to provide.

Anyone have any thoughts as to what the UK - regional France market will look like in summer 2015 ? It's worth pointing out how dependent some of these French airports are for Cityjet and Flybe to bring in UK summer tourists

Angers (5,010 dom - 3,855 int) - British Airways (likely large marketing support involved)
Avignon (7,722 dom - 22,243 int) - Flybe
Bergerac (1,607 dom - 282,786 int) - Ryanair, Flybe, Jet2
Beziers (55,175 dom - 168,606 int) - Flybe, Ryanair
Brest (929,583 dom - 123,086 int) - Cityjet, Flybe, formerly Ryanair
Brive (41,812 dom - 14,371 int) - Cityjet
Carcassonne (2,342 dom - 393,321 int) - Ryanair
Chambery (2,602 dom - 225,425 int) - British Airways, Flybe, Jet2
Clermont-Ferrand (330,250 dom - 45,615 int) - Flybe
Deauville (0 dom - 130,175 int) - Cityjet
Dinard (617 dom - 137,861 int) - Ryanair
Dole (6,433 dom - 27,284 int) - Ryanair
La Rochelle (29,147 dom - 207,275 int) - Easyjet, Flybe, Ryanair
Limoges (57,262 dom - 248,019 int) - Flybe, Ryanair
Lourdes (110,704 dom - 298,578 int) - Ryanair
Nimes (1,266 dom - 183,580 int) - Ryanair
Pau (580,425 dom - 28,746 int) - formerly Cityjet, no longer served
Perpignan (231,460 dom - 118,411 int) - Flybe, Ryanair
Poitiers (22,976 dom - 75,150 int) - Ryanair
Quimper (107,466 dom - 2,606 int) - British Airways (likely large marketing support involved)
Rennes (396,630 dom - 51,983 int) - Flybe
Rodez (64,421 dom - 89,651 int) - Ryanair
Toulon (457,771 dom - 120,935 int) - Ryanair (+ formerly Cityjet)
Tours (26,091 dom - 140,895 int) - Ryanair

Dom = domestic pax in 2012, int = international pax in 2012

Runway lengths - based on distances on wikipedia (yes, I know), all but the following airports are likely 737-800 capable.
Angers - 1,800m
Avignon - 1,880m
Chambery - 2,020m - but challenging terrain

Note - I've ignored the airports where the only UK flights are with Easyjet, Ryanair and BA and whose long term future seems fairly assured