slug,
how many Captains you think EK needs? EK has almost 800 pilots now and they upgrade fast track guys, so if you are not fast track you will get bypassed big time and when you have your 3 years you'll be at the end of the food chain.
How many Captains you think retire???
There were just a few the last 4 years.
Looking at the current situation there will not many pilots be leaving either (for a low seniority number with another airline).
Make your calculations 100 A/C in 2010 and a crew factor of approx. 7 and don't forget they need more F/O's for the super longhaul acting as cruise captains.