Steamchicken
I can't tell you this weeks results, because I need the money to make an offer for that slightly used Apache that will be appearing in the Baghdad edition of Trade-a-Plane.
In my opinion , Saddams believes his best chance, is to let Allied heavy formations roll as quickly as they can, stretching their supply lines , increasing the frequency of breakdowns, decreasing the frequency of troop re-supplies etc.
As the supply lines stretch, that's when the small "stay behind" elements, or larger, hidden forces , operating up and down the MSR, will start to pick off targets.
In this sort of war, a high value vehicle, is not an Abrams, a C 2 or an IFV. It's the Breakdown truck, the fuel tanker , the scoffwagon etc. Nice soft targets , critical to an advance and resupply.
The MSR should have a series of "Fighting Forts" established along the route. These need be no more than reinforced sangars, with perhaps a section of infantry, equipped with Anti-Tank missiles, and heavy machine guns, and of course, secure phone links, to the next Sangar, half a mile, to a mile up the road, with at least one Apache/Cobra/Armed Kiowa , no more than 5 minutes flying time from the post.
As our supply lines get longer, Iraqi irregulars and insurgents will be looking for targets of opportunity, and we have to keep that road open. Of course, other people will say, "But we can supply them by air"
Yes we can, but you can't repair tanks by air, you can't recover broken down wagons by air. The Iraqis are going for maintenance crews and Engineers. If you kill or capture them, then how many tanks have you disabled? How many Bridges won't get built, or minefields cleared?
The Iraqis, are fighting with the benefit of experience in warfare in this terrain. I've watched a lot of the talking heads , going on about "Our equipment is superior"
Of course it is. The poor old Iraqis only have T-55's and T-62's and T-72's in the RG. Look at the other side of the coin. They're updated and upgunned, some of them MAY have Czech Fire control equipment. Very capable, very nasty. One thing is sure, the T-55's, 62's, 72's and I suspect, though we haven't been told yet, T-80's function very well in the desert.
As for these reports of "Little bands of fanatics and die-hards" . No they are not. The news is banging on about "An entire division surrendered" An entire division is a lot of men, a typical Iraqi division, (pre-war) could be composed of 2 Tank Brigades ,3 Tank Battalions , 1 Mechanized Infantry Battalion ,1 Motorized Special Forces Company , 1 Engineering Company ,1 Reconaissance Platoon 1 Medium Rocket Launcher Battery (Or Artillery)
Now Mr.Blair announced we had captured 3000 Iraqis all told. So where are the rest of them? We have heard, they've deserted. What, all of the rest? That's the best part of 5,000 troops. If I deserted my unit in wartime, the last place I'd be gong , is anywhere, where there were ba'ath party officials, looking to shoot me. So is it possible, that at least some of them, left a unit that was going to surrender, to join one that will fight?
There is a lot of crap getting spouted , about "Irregulars, stay behinds, fanatics" etc etc. These are the only people who want to fight us. Wrong. Irregulars, stay behinds and fanatics, do not have carefully co-ordinated fire plans, or Artillery and Mortar platoons.How many of these irregulars, are actually REGULAR Iraqi personnel, told to go home, melt into the background, but keep the RPG's and the AK's handy? Why keep them in massed formations in the desert, to be bombed to ******* by B-52's? Do we think he hasn't learnt his lesson from last time? I'd be interested to know, if the formations we have been bombing, are the same size as compositions in GW1? How do we know, that his Tanks and BDR's/BMP's arent parked in domestic garages in towns? Am I the only one, concerned about the deliberate and studied lack of preparations in Baghdad, and other CHOKE points?
I'm afraid the US high command, is going to have to face a simple couple of truths.
1. Not every Iraqi is overjoyed to see us, as evidenced by the fighting, the lack of refugees, trying to meet Allied Forces for safety and liberation, and the numbers of refugees returning home to fight.
2. You can't make an omlette, without levelling a town. Sorry, but there it is. if that building is a strong point, level it, not fart about for the cameras.
Saddam is playing for time, he hopes for some things (Arabic uprisings, volunteers, resupply from Iran and Syria) , but he knows he will get one thing. The Gulf 30/40 day sandstorm. He knows it's coming, and that's when he'll use his Arab irregulars in partisan activities.