No Shortage and Never Will Be
King Canute couldn’t hold back the tide and nor can the financial forces that will continue to drive down flying Ts & Cs. The latest package I’ve heard of from my Asian students is to pay for type rating, pay for line training and the first 3 years as an FO unpaid. If there is a pilot shortage or even one on the horizon the laws of supply and demand are defying gravity because the scheme is oversubscribed.
Even captains are not immune. An old pal has declined an upgrade to captain as he’s expected to pay for the privilege. Retired western captains may well be making hay in China right now but that window of opportunity is fast closing as nationals step up to the plate and domestic schools fast track training for FO’s.
In time India and China will be cranking out more fast tracked pilots per year than populations of small towns, which will continue to drive down Ts & Cs as European airlines tap into a plentiful and cheaper resource. (India already produces more medical grads per year than all UK grads, so why do you think our medical schools now produce so few medics?).
A well known airline has publicly stated that pilot training will henceforth be a profit centre. But selling jobs at a profit is not confined to airlines. Flying is a vocation and oversupplied with willing mules. But it is merely in the vanguard of making a market in jobs. Buying good careers is a huge untapped source of income and flying is just the start of this trend.
There is an oversupply of skilled youngsters generally and you can see the same trend in other markets. The ‘intern’ market has grown from being a smart way for companies to take on free labour for menial tasks into charging the poor interns for the privilege of gaining ‘experience’. Remember these new intern generations are competing globally, just as pilots do. What you’ve seen in the flying world is just the start of turning mainstream careers into markets.
We live in an ‘accountant-ocracy’ where nothing but spreadsheet numbers matter: safety, dignity and quality have no value other than shaved to the barest minimum and indeed legal penalties await those who complain! Anyone who has had the misfortune of flying from Luton knows just how degraded humanity can be to save a buck: the airport owners, the government agencies and pax alike (including me) should hang their heads in shame.
Safety is the only lever and frankly airline flight is extraordinarily safe. The insurance industry puts a price on perceived safety and P2F for JAR 250 hour co-pilots doesn’t bother them. Over reliance on automation doesn’t seem to have affected premiums either. Clear evidence indicates that some pilots don’t monitor their airspeed whilst landing, can’t go round or have forgotten how to recover from a stall, and that doesn’t appear to worry the insurance industry either. So safety isn’t an issue: it isn’t a lever.
The future of a flying career is the MPL P2F package. The most perfect risk and cost free pilot supply mechanism conceived of by airlines. Cadets pay for their MPL, type rating and line training. They won’t be paid for the first few years and when they do it will be minimal as he or she will be competing with vast, cheaper and every bit as competent labour pools inbound from Asia.
Meanwhile conditions will be constantly eroded. As for the flying, I quote a salesman from a large airframe manufacturer: the only problems in flying arise when pilots are allowed to get their hands on the controls. Automation will erode your skills too.
So when you’ve finally climbed the greasy pole and are offered a chance of captaincy you’ll be paying all over again. King Canute decided he’d had enough. He obviously didn’t have the flying bug! The bug explains why there is no shortage, there never will be.