Getting back to the point....
Originally Posted by LowObservable
I would bet much less money on the F-35C, even given that it passes carrier quals. If it dies, the Marines may end up with a handful of F-35Bs - having already admitted that the aircraft will be used for STOVL missions only ten per cent of the time.
In both cases (B&C), the Adv Super Hornet is the classic example of an 80 per cent solution at a fraction of the cost.
For the B&C, the driving factor right now is probably not program performance but the economy and pressures on defense budgets. The years between now and 2020 are likely to be very tough - and the budgets that, according to Kendall &c, "protect" the JSF start with an FY15 plan that does not reflect the Budget Control Act's sequester provisions.
LO, thanks for this.
I agree on the USAF would be left with an awful lot of tired F-15C/Ds & 16s by 2030, along with a (comparatively) tiny number of F-22s and (probably quite tired) F-15Es. This isn't big or clever, so they'll go out of their way make JSF work as a sort of stealthy F-16CG/CJ (or whatever the current nomenclature is); this will come at a price of >$120m a copy, meaning that most of the allies will have either tiny offtake or will buy something else.
On Dave-B, I just can't see what it does in CONOPS terms for the USMC that makes it make sense. And sorry for being a stuck record on this, but the US will have to make budget cuts, and Dave-B is an easy saving to make - and that's before you end up with it being the most expensive variant which has the lowest payload / range capability. (Let's hope it does get binned so that the UK buys a proper carrier jet....
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Dave-C? Your point about Avd Super Hornet being 80% of the solution is surely right. Do you think that they'd really go for it and leave the USAF with the stealth capability, esp. if X-47C etc doesn't come off?
So I keep returning to a compromise - Dave-AC if you will; in essence, save a pile of cash by making Dave-C the main production variant, and modifying it (a la F-110A/F-4C) with a UAARSI for the USAF. I know it has lower g loading and has poorer transonic acceleration, but if the USAF is looking for a bomb truck, then a modified Dave-C would be fine. Less clever for the air-to-air aircombat mission, but that's hardly the point.
Thoughts?
S41